![]() For some, the costs are simply out of reach, as in Turkey, Jordan and Egypt. This scenario seems feasible but not an immediate danger as these programs would not be easy to conceal or quick to build. ![]() An uptick in tensions with Iran followed with more strategic cooperation between the Gulf and Israel may change the nuclear ambitions and pace of research and development outside of the civilian and power sector. Scenario 1: The political attraction of a civilian nuclear power program takes on more of a geopolitical lens, as more states within the Gulf and the Middle East seek to advance their security and energy needs through nuclear energy. Additional enrichment facilities for civilian or military use are, of course, the subject of considerable international concern. Iran has one nuclear power plant at Bushehrthat generates less than 2%of the Islamic Republic's electricity.Any nuclear program for weapons or defense purposes is not acknowledged or confirmed. The government has a policy of openness to the idea of nuclear power for electricity generation, though no plants are currently under construction. Israel has two known nuclear reactors (a heavy water reactor at Dimona that has been active since the 1960s, and a research reactor at Nahel Soreq near Tel Aviv, which has been open to inspectors).Russia, China, South Korea and France were asked to submit proposals. Saudi Arabia extended in summer 2022 a Request for Proposals to construct two advanced nuclear power reactors.The plant, now under construction, will include four reactors, which Rosatom has subcontracted a South Korean firm ( Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power) to help build at the El Dabaa nuclear power plant near Cairo. The project cost is estimated at $28.75 billion, with Russian lending $25 billion and Egypt providing the remaining 15% in payment installments over 22 years. In 2015, Egypt signed an agreement with Russia to finance and build Egypt's first nuclear power plant.The $20 billion nuclear power plant is expected to operate the first of four reactors by 2023, the completion of the plant would generate 4,800 megawatts and produce up to 10% of the country's electricity. Rosatom is building the plant and has recently made a subcontracting award to the firm TSM Enerji, which is owned by three Russian-based firms. A subsidiary of Russia's Rosatom, Akkuyu Nukleer, is under contract to supply four nuclear reactors to a plant in southern Turkey.In May 2018, Jordan announced a plan for a small modular reactor with Russia. Jordan plans to send the yellowcake abroad for enrichment and then use it to fuel nuclear reactors. According to the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC), the country has estimated conventional uranium reserves of 140,000 tons and there have been collaborative programs in mining exploration with Saudi Ka-CARE since 2017. The Jordanian Uranium Mining Company announced its extraction plant produced 20 kilos of yellowcake from 160 tons of uranium ore.A recent study of the available financing for nuclear reactors globally highlighted the preferential terms the Russian projects have been able to offer, making Western competition less likely to win these awards. Russia's Rosatom has the contracts to provide the reactors in both Egypt and Turkey. Saudi Arabia has ambitions for a nuclear program and established a holding company to develop nuclear power projects in the kingdom with a 2027 goal. ![]() Jordan has a plan for two small modular nuclear reactors, and of course, Iran has its own contested nuclear program. There are two other major nuclear power projects in MENA underway in Egypt and in Turkey.The uranium is sourced from a variety of suppliers, including Rosatom and Urenco (a UK, Dutch, US and German firm.) The Barakah plant will eventually be able to generate 25% of the country's total electricity demand when its four reactors are active (two of four are now online), while preventing the release of over 22 million tons of carbon emissions per annum, equal to 25% of the Emirates' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). ![]()
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